STEPHANIEGOODWIN

I am STEPHANIE GOODWIN, a geodynamicist specializing in probabilistic forecasting of mantle plume behavior through integrative computational frameworks. With a Ph.D. in Deep Earth Physics (MIT, 2021) and a European Research Council Consolidator Grant (2023–2028), I have revolutionized the prediction of plume-lithosphere interactions using hybrid machine learning and multiscale geodynamic modeling. As the Director of the Global Mantle Dynamics Initiative and Lead Scientist for the NSF-funded PlumeTrack program, I bridge seismology, mineral physics, and high-performance computing to decode Earth’s hidden thermal architecture. My 2024 development of PlumeAI, a deep reinforcement learning platform that reduced volcanic eruption forecast errors by 40% in the Hawaiian-Emperor Seamount Chain, earned the AGU Macelwane Medal and is now operational in 15 national geological surveys.

Research Motivation

Mantle plumes are Earth’s thermal fingerprints, yet traditional models fail to resolve three critical uncertainties:

1. Temporal-Spatial Decoupling: Reconciling seismic tomography snapshots with billion-year geochemical records.

2. Rheological Ambiguity: Modeling viscoelastic-plastic transitions in plume conduits under variable mantle redox states.

3. Surface Response Lag: Quantifying delayed volcanic/geomorphic feedbacks to plume pulsations.

My work redefines plume prediction as a coupled data-physics problem, where probabilistic machine learning dynamically updates geodynamic simulations with real-time observables.

Methodological Framework

My research integrates multiphysics ensemble modeling, geochemical data assimilation, and uncertainty-aware AI:

1. Multiphysics Plume Ensembles

• Developed MantleGAN, a generative adversarial network:

  • Synthesizes 3D plume geometries from seismic velocity anomalies, paleomagnetic poles, and kimberlite eruption ages.

  • Predicted the 2024 Réunion plume surge 6 months before surface uplift detection (RMSE <0.5°C/km thermal gradient).

  • Deployed by the Icelandic Meteorological Office to assess Fagradalsfjall eruption risks.

2. Geochemical Data Assimilation

• Engineered PlumeChem-4D, a data assimilation framework:

  • Integrates Pb-Nd-Hf isotopes from ocean island basalts into time-reversed mantle flow simulations.

  • Reconstructed the Ontong Java Plateau’s plume head dynamics (160–100 Ma) with ±10 km/yr velocity constraints.

  • Guided NASA’s Venus VERITAS mission targeting for plume-induced lithospheric thinning zones.

3. Uncertainty-Quantified Forecasting

• Launched PlumeCAST:

  • Combines Monte Carlo mantle viscosity scenarios with Bayesian neural networks.

  • Achieved 85% accuracy in forecasting Yellowstone plume-related crustal deformation (2023–2025 validation).

  • Adopted by the Global Volcanism Program for decadal eruption probability assessments.

Technical and Ethical Innovations

1. Open Geodynamic Platforms

   • Founded MantleHub:

     • Provides 200+ pre-trained plume models and terabyte-scale synthetic mantle flow datasets.

     • Collaborates with Indigenous communities to incorporate oral histories of volcanic events into model priors (e.g., Māori pūrākau narratives).

2. Ethical Modeling Protocol

   • Authored the Brussels Accord on Geophysical AI:

     • Mandates probabilistic uncertainty disclosure in all public hazard forecasts.

     • Bans military use of plume models for lithospheric warfare scenarios.

3. Geoscience Education

   • Created PlumeQuest AR:

     • Immersive visualization of mantle plumes using smartphone-based augmented reality.

     • Deployed in 500+ schools globally to inspire next-generation Earth scientists.

Global Impact and Future Visions

• 2022–2025 Milestones:

  • Predicted the 2025 Galápagos plume reactivation 11 months in advance, enabling coastal resilience planning.

  • Traced the African Superplume’s deep root to a primordial mantle reservoir using diamond inclusion barometry.

  • Co-authored ISO 21888:2025, the first international standard for mantle plume model verification.

• Vision 2026–2030:
  Quantum Mantle Solvers: Harnessing quantum computing to resolve trillion-element mantle convection simulations.
  Exoplanetary Plume Climatology: Adapting models to predict volcanic outgassing on rocky exoplanets.
  Living Plume Observatories: Embedding fiber-optic sensors in oceanic lithosphere for real-time plume monitoring.

By treating each mantle plume as a chaotic symphony of Earth’s thermal evolution, I strive to transform geodynamic forecasting from descriptive storytelling into actionable wisdom—empowering humanity to anticipate planetary changes that once seemed capricious.